Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Baltimore Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’rse actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economt grows 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicted that the currenrt economic downturn will end around Septembed but that the unemployment rate will remain high throughg the first half ofnext year. Investment won’r snap back as quickly as it usuallty does aftera recession, Regalia Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becausre of the federal government’s huge budget deficitsz and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economgy by the , he said.
If this stimuluas is not unwound once the economg beginsto recover, higher interesft rates could choke off improvement in the housiny market and business investment, he “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middles of next year,” Regalia said. Almostr every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was precededs by heavydebt levels, he noted. The chances of a double-diop recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointed chairman of theFederapl Reserve, Regalia said. If President Obamaa appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larry to chair the Fed, that woulde signal the monetary spigot woulds remain open for a longeer time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obamwa administrationis “not something the markets want to see,” Regaliza said. Obama has declined to say whether he willreappoint Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of small business owners expect the recessiom to last at least anothetr two years, according to a survey of Intuit Payrollp customers. But 61 percent expecr their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilitiezs but bearish on the factors they can’tr control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for .
“Even in the gloomiesrt economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small business owners by founrd that 57 percent thought the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the economy was More than half planned to decreasd spending on business development in the nextsix months. on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Web site.