Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Business First of Louisville:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’re actuallgy high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economyu grows 95 percent of the time, said the chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predicted that the currenf economic downturn will end around Septembeer but that the unemployment rate will remain high througg the first half of next Investment won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallyh does after a recession, Regalia said. however, looms as a potential problem becaus e of thefederal government’s huge budget deficite and the massive amount of dollars pumped into the economhy by the , he said.
If this stimulud is not unwound once the economy begins to higher interest rates could choke off improvement in the housing markey andbusiness investment, he said. “The economy has got to be running on its own by the middle ofnext year,” Regaliza said. Almost every major inflationary periodin U.S. history was preceded by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-dip recessiom will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointesd chairman of theFederal Reserve, Regaliw said. If President Obama appoints hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chair the Fed, that would signalo the monetary spigot would remain open for a longerr time, he said.
A coalescinbg of the Fed and the Obama administrationis “not something the marketsz want to see,” Regalia said. Obama has declineed to say whether he will reappoint whose term endsin February. Meanwhile, more than half of smallo business owners expect the recession to last at leasyt anothertwo years, according to a surveg of Intuit Payroll But 61 percent expect theidr own business to grow in the next 12 months. “Smalol business owners are bullish on their own abilities but bearish on the factorsthey can’tr control,” said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Evenj in the gloomiest economy, there are opportunities to seize.
” A separat survey of small business owners by found that 57 percenty thought the economy was getting while 26 percent thought the economy was More than half planned to decrease spending on businesas development in the next six onthe U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Web